INSTANT VIEW-NZ Q2 retail sales fall, back rate cut view...

admin | 2008-08-14 23:15

- WELLINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - New Zealand retail volumes fell for the second quarter in a row in the three months to June, backing views the economy is in recession and the central bank will keep cutting interest rates.

The value of seasonally-adjusted sales were down 0.2 percent on the previous quarter, and allowing for price movements, volumes fell 1.5 percent, according to official data released on Friday.

- June month s/adj sales up 0.9 pct. (Reuters poll +0.1 pct) as higher car sales were partly offset by weaker department store retailing. Core sales flat compared with May.

'The data confirms that consumer and overall activity remains weak and increases the odds that gross domestic product will be negative during the quarter, confirming that New Zealand is in recession.

'The headline figure of a 1.5 percent decline in volumes is pretty close to what most were anticipating.

- The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.6990/00 from around $0.6970/80 before the data. The yield on the September bank bill contract rose 3 basis points to 8.07 percent compared with the 8 percent official cash rate.

- NZ consumer confidence fell to a 17 year low in the June quarter, according to a Westpac McDermott Miller survey. Credit card billings and electronic card sales both fell in June, while growth in household borrowing slowed to 0.3 percent, as consumers become more cautious on slowing property prices and economy.

- Unemployment rose to a two year high of 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent in the second quarter despite a rebound in employment.

- Government agency Quotable Value said on Monday its house price index, which measures annual price growth, fell 2.2 percent in July, the first decline since it started in early 2005. Industry data on Tuesday showed house prices flat, but sales rebounding off 16 year lows.

- Homeware and sports goods retailer Briscoe Group said on Aug. 4 said first half sales fell 4.4 percent and conditions remained 'challenging', but there had been some strong trading towards the end of the period.

- New car registrations were 11.4 percent lower than the previous quarter and the consumer price index rose 1.6 percent, sending inflation to 4 percent, a two year high.

- The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) cut its cash rate by a quarter point to 8 percent in July, the first reduction in five years, and has since reiterated there is room for more cuts. All 17 analysts in a Reuters poll expect a further 25 basis points to 7.75 pct on Sept.11.

Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

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