Thanks to 9/11, what is potentially the greatest economic growth story in history has been set in motion - and the greatest opportunity for investors. I mean the rise of China as an economic superpower, and as an economic partner of the United States. In terms of sheer wealth creation, there is simply nothing to compare to the rapid conversion of a nation of a billion starving peasants into a productive, modern nation.
What does 9/11 have to do with that? Simple. Before 9/11, the United States defense establishment had China targeted as the next great superpower opponent. With the Soviet Union no longer a threat, the Pentagon reorganized its long-range planning around the assumption that inevitably China and the United States would have to compete for global military dominance.
But after 9/11, the Pentagon's mission instantly changed. Suddenly, the Pentagon found the mission it had been looking for since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 - the war on terror. The generals are still figuring out how to fight that war effectively, and they have a long way to go. But that's another story. My point is that 9/11 turned China from our worst enemy into our best friend - overnight.
Since 9/11, our trade with China has multiplied exponentially. In China, the result has been the massive ramping up of an already steep growth trajectory - all to the good. In the United States, the result has been a strange combination of good news and bad news. On the plus side, the U.S. consumer has had the benefit of a flood of high quality and inexpensive goods made in China. On the negative side, there have been some job losses in the manufacturing sector (and the fear of more).
Yet, the opportunity for U.S. investors is unmistakable. There may be some dislocations here and there, but there's no denying the fact that globalization of the economy is a remarkable opportunity.
For one thing, to cite the title of a popular business book, China represents a billion customers. As China gets wealthier, eventually its citizens will get to the point where they can afford the stuff we can sell them, even if right now we do more buying than selling. There's the opportunity to invest in U.S. companies that can figure out how to sell things to them now, and later. Today Boeing (BA ) is an obvious example. Fortunes will be made figuring out what tomorrow's example will be.
Even if all we do is buy from China, rather than sell, there's an investment opportunity. Retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT ) are surely growing faster because cheap Chinese goods allow them to offer lower prices. And U.S. manufacturers such as K2 (KTO ) - the sports-equipment company that has relocated all its U.S. work to Chinese factories - can use cheap Chinese labor to make products that are both higher quality and lower cost.
There are even investment opportunities that exploit what's wrong with China. For example, the combination of China's primitive agricultural sector and its increasing connectedness to the world economy could result in the global spread of avian influenza. So do what I've done - invest in a portfolio of companies that are working on treatments and tests for bird flu: companies like AVI Biopharma (AVII ), Gilead Sciences (GILD ) or Quidel (QDEL ).
And, of course, increasingly U.S. investors will be able to invest directly in the booming Chinese economy. It's difficult now, because Chinese securities markets are still small, primitive and not especially well regulated. That will change. But in the meantime, U.S. investors can still invest in China - indirectly - by investing in American companies that are themselves investing in China.
Here's another way to invest in China: Buy a house right here in America, with a mortgage kept artificially cheap by the flood of Chinese money pouring into our Treasury bond market. Instead of seeing it as a threat that China holds so much of our government debt, why not appreciate it for the gift that it is?
That Chinese investment in our bonds isn't going to go away anytime soon, either. As long as China wants to keep growing rapidly, it's going to have to attract foreign investment. And to do that, it's going to have to keep demonstrating its credit-worthiness by building up bigger and bigger positions in the safest securities in the world: U.S. government debt.
And here's the best and simplest China investment opportunity of them all. Now that China is our economic partner, and not public super-enemy No. 1, the world is going to be a vastly safer and more stable place. Any investment, anywhere in the world, is going to have a higher and less risky payoff with the risk of World War III between the U.S. and China taken off the table.
I'm not trying to be a Pollyanna about the problems and risks here. I know the U.S. is challenged to help those among us who are displaced by competition from China. And I know that there are still plenty of problems in dealing with China on a level playing field. In my view, the worst of them is protecting intellectual-property rights from piracy.
But don't let that get you down. Just because there are still a few problems doesn't mean there aren't great opportunities.
Mark my words: Twenty years from now if you haven't been making China plays a big part of your investment thinking, you're going to kick yourself, as you realize that the biggest and fastest economic shift in history passed you right by. Don't make that mistake.
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